国际软件基准比对标准组织（ISBSG）秘书长John Ogilvie先生已确认将出席“2016(第一届)中国软件估算大会”并发表主题演讲。

John Ogilvie先生在任ISBSG秘书长之前，他曾在澳大利亚IBM工作超过30年，在软件开发、技术支持和软件测量方面担任过技术、管理及咨询的职务。自1997年以来，开始使用功能点方法度量软件项目规模、管理项目范围、测算项目开发效率，以及合同谈判。

此次John Ogilvie先生演讲的主题及主要内容如下：

Beyond the Statistical Average

The KISIS Principle - Keeping it Simple is Stupid when interpreting Measurement Data

How trying to keep it too simple can lead to difficulty

Based on the speaker’s experience negotiating and managing many outsourcing contracts using Function Points as a Key Performance Indicator, this presentation describes the pitfalls that can be experienced if one takes too simplistic a view of the meaning and use of Function Point data and suggest ways in which they may be avoided

Starting with a typical outsourcing scenario, and using ISBSG project data, techniques to improve the effectiveness of a Function Point program are demonstrated. Particular emphasis is made on the importance of setting baselines appropriate to the environment to be measured and deciding how to determine if agreed performance targets are achieved

The use of statistical analysis to enable a more sophisticated and pragmatic interpretation of measurement data is recommended. The view that a little statistical analysis can actually uncover “lies and damn lies” is offered.

Finally, a template for design of a successful Function Point Program is presented.

Five key points that conference participants will take away from the presentation.

• Simplicity can cause a false sense of security

• A broader understanding, by all stakeholders, of what measurement data means is vital

• Statistical analysis can actually uncover “lies and damn lies”

•  Factors to be considered in establishing  performance baselines

•  How to design a Function Point measurement regime that can work

 John Ogilvie 先生主要工作经历如下：

John Ogilvie is Chief Executive Officer of the International Software Benchmarking Standards Group (ISBSG), a position he has held since 2013.  Prior to that, he worked with IBM in Australia for more than 30 years. Over this time held a wide variety of Technical, Management and Consulting positions in software development, support and software related measurement.

Since 1997, he has been involved in the use of Function Points as a measure of software size and their use for estimating project size, managing scope in software projects, measuring productivity of application development and support activities, process development and contract negotiation.

Through direct involvement in negotiating and supporting many contracts, including shared risk/reward designs, both in Australia and Internationally,  John has developed significant  practical experience and knowledge in the implementation of estimating, productivity and measurement programs that satisfy both customer and vendor requirements while mitigating  financial risk to both parties.

Having seen measurement data misused or misinterpreted on several occasions, John has developed a passion to improve the level of rigor generally applied by organisations to the analysis and use of such data.